India’s economy is showing early signs of recovery four months after a strict lockdown was imposed in the country to contain the novel coronavirus outbreak.
Some vital indicators of the economy including exports, foreign investments and employment numbers suggest that economic activities in India are gradually improving.
EXPORTS ON THE RISE
Exports of certain commodities have gone up. For instance, spice exports from India saw a rise of 34% in rupee terms in June.
The ravaged automobile sector has also seen an increase in exports. Total exports across categories increased 2.95 per cent to more than 4.76 million vehicles in the fiscal ended March 31.
Maruti Suzuki, India’s leading carmaker, is also planning to boost its share of exports.
Similar sentiments were echoed by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, who recently said that India’s balance of payments will be very strong.
“Exports have shown a good turnaround. We are in July at about 91 per cent export level of the corresponding period last year. While imports in July are 70 per cent of last year’s level,” he said during the inaugural session of the India Virtual FMCG Supply Chain Expo 2020, organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).
INDIANS HAVE STARTED INVESTING ABROAD AGAIN
Another sign of recovery is visible from data which shows that Indian businesses are the second-highest investor in the United Kingdom.
Latest investment figures from the Department of International Trade reveal that Indian businesses are the second largest investors into the UK capital, behind the United States.
India has emerged as the second-highest investor in the United Kingdom, with 120 new projects and 5,429 jobs in 2019-20.
Also Read | Economic slowdown inevitable, govt needs to spend more: Manmohan Singh
In 2020, technology and telecoms companies continue to dominate the list of fastest-growing Indian companies in the UK.
Julie Chappell, Managing Director, International Markets at London & Partners, told India Today TV that despite the global pandemic, Indian companies and investors are still investing in London.
“We did see a dip in economic activity at the start of the pandemic, but that was because of the turmoil the global economy was in. Since the past few months, investments have been increasing by Indian companies. Companies have been opening offices and we expect investment to increase by this year end,” she said.
UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS FALL
Data from Mumbai-based think tank Centre for Monitoring India Economy (CMIE) also shows unemployment decreasing in June and July. This, too, is an indication of the economy making a recovery.
According to CMIE data, an estimated 121.5 million jobs were lost in April 2020. It recovered to 100.3 million in May and fell to 29.9 million in June. July saw a further recovery in jobs and the number of jobs lost fell to 11 million.
However, it is worth mentioning that most of the recovery in jobs is happening in the informal or unorganised sector. According to Mahesh Vyas, CMIE CEO and MD, there has been no improvement in “better-paying” or salaried jobs and it could take some time.
Even then, the early signs of economic recovery are likely to provide a boost to Indian businesses and the recovery may come earlier than expected.